Research Flash - Opsens Inc. (OPS:TSX,$2.42|BUY $4.00 TARGET) Q3 Financials Will Be An Inflection Point
Tomorrow morning, OPS will be reporting Q3/22 financial results that we expect to be a major inflection point for the FFR/dPR segment. This will be the first quarter that OPS can fully penetrate its FFR/dPR sales channels without COVID restrictions hindering growth. As a reminder, the last time Opsens operated without COVID restrictions (Q3/21), it posted $9.2M in revenue (+39% YoY, +5% QoQ) and 59% gross margin. We think that this quarter will be even better given the vastly increased hospital capacities and improved supply chains across North America. We continue to believe there is a build-up of demand for cardiovascular procedures that will begin coming unlocked in Q3 and the coming quarters, leading to strong revenue growth for the FFR business. The increased revenue and EBITDA generation from this segment will then provide non-dilute financing for the SavvyWire launch (which we think has potential to become the dominant TAVR guidewire). We view the material pullback in OPS shares from highs of $3.50/share as a meaningful buying opportunity ahead of TAVR commercialization and continued resumption of FFR growth.
Our expectations for the quarter are as follows:
Revenue of $9.4M (+16% QoQ, +2% YoY), including medical sales of $8.3M ($5.9M from FFR/dPR and $2.4M from optical medical systems) and industrial sales of $1.1M
Gross profit of $5.3M (56% margin) compared to $4.2M (52% margin) reported last quarter
EBITDA of -$0.5M compared to -$1.4M reported last quarter
OPS will be hosting its conference call at 11:00AM EST which can be accessed by dialing 1-833-756-0865 or 1-412-317-5754 or via live webcast on the Opsens website. Group Purchasing Agreement: On Monday, Opsens announced that it was awarded a national group purchasing agreement for Interventional Specialty Diagnostics with Premier Inc. Premier is one of the largest GPOs in the industry with a network of 4,400 U.S. hospitals and health systems. Under the agreement, Premium members will be offered pre-negotiated prices and terms for OptoWire III and related system components. OPS now has GPO contracts covering over 90% of U.S. hospitals, an underpenetrated sales channel that we expect to assist in accelerating FFR/dPR growth. Our Thoughts: We continue to believe OPS will be able gain solid market share in TAVR due to the various key advantages of the SavvyWire (continuous pressure measurement, use of a single wire vs. multiple devices, single access point, cost savings, time savings) with potential to become the dominant guidewire in 3-5 years. Furthermore, with the easing of COVID restrictions at hospitals, we are expecting accelerating sales growth from the FFR/dPR segment. We are maintaining our BUY rating and our $4.00/share target price based on 5x 2023E sales ex-TAVR and 2.5x 2025E TAVR sales.